Claim record · edition 1.0.0
METR defines a 50%-task-completion time horizon: the time humans typically take on tasks a model completes with 50% success. Its published measurement reports a horizon of around 50 minutes for one frontier model of that period, and a doubling of the horizon roughly every seven months since 2019, with a possible acceleration in 2024.
These figures are taken from the abstract of the METR paper, read during this pass. They are the only time-horizon numbers in this map, and they replace the draft report’s unverifiable figures.
Limits of this claim
The authors state limitations including external validity, and their five-year statement is explicitly conditional on the trend generalizing. The measurement is over a specific task suite, not real-world software work. Figures later than this paper are not carried here: the draft report’s "~2 hours as of late 2025" was not independently verified during this pass and is excluded.
Supporting source records · 1
Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks
Kwa et al. (METR) · 2025
The primary definition of the 50%-task-completion time horizon. Abstract read during this pass; it is the only verified source for any time-horizon figure in this map.
Source record →