Claim record · edition 1.0.0
si-021Active research
Aggregated expert forecasts of AI capability timelines have shifted substantially between survey rounds.
Large surveys of published AI researchers record materially different aggregate timelines across successive rounds.
Limits of this claim
Instability in aggregate forecasts is evidence about forecasters, not about capability. Specific dates and shift magnitudes are not restated here; consult the source.
Supporting source records · 1
primary paperContent verified
Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI
Grace et al. · 2024
The large expert-survey instrument used for timeline forecasting, and evidence about forecast instability.
Source record →